I grew up in a conservative political family.
My parents were members of an early 60's organization and they were called young American free organizations. They continue to engage in political and government services.
The highest point of their political life was the resurgence of the Reagan administration in the 1980s... the efforts of the "real" conservatives in the White House for decades.
The core beliefs defining its conservative version include anti-communism, the unborn right to life and the limited role of government.
These are long-term goals. I remember that the problem that dominated its daily political activities - and our table discussion - was the federal government's fiscal policy... first and foremost the debt problem.
Given the behavior of Republicans in Congress in recent months, it is clear that my parents' conservative brand has disappeared. Tax cuts without funds and transactions that undermined the budget last week are very worrying.
It should also make you worry... In fact, our irresponsible representatives in Washington are creating a perfect economic storm.
Just when things look better
Thanks to our representative in Washington, we are facing a future in which interest rates are rising, the dollar is depreciating and stock prices are falling.
In the past six weeks, Congress has added trillions of dollars to the future federal budget deficit.
The Tax Reduction and Employment Act, passed at the end of December, increased the deficit forecast by about 1.5 trillion to 10 years. Last week, Congress and President Donald Trump added another $300 billion in budget until 2019.
The non-partisan responsible federal budget committee predicts that the federal deficit will reach $1.2 trillion next year.
The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the federal deficit will double the proportion of gross domestic product [GDP] in the next few years, and in some estimates it can be as high as 7% to 8%.
Long-term data show a 1% increase in debt-to-GDP ratio, while 10-year Treasury yields rise by 3 to 5 basis points.
How can we be so sure? After all, the government has had a deficit in the past decade, and we haven't seen bond yields rise, right? What is the difference now?
The answer is that central bank officials have rashly called it a "special monetary policy".
After the financial meltdown in 2008, major central banks around the world intervened in the purchase of US Treasury bonds and other government bonds as part of a deliberate strategy to maintain low interest rates. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank currently hold more than $14 trillion in securities in their portfolios.
But the Fed has substantially stopped buying these securities. Since the end of last year, it has begun the so-called "orderly cooling" of its Ministry of Finance.
Therefore, if there is no other source of government debt demand, the new Treasury bill supply funds will be used to make up for the increasing deficit will create a buyer's market. This will push down the price of Treasury bonds and push up the yield.
Forecasts show that in 2018, the Treasury will sell more than $1 trillion in debt.
People, not everyone
Washington's financial irresponsibility will also work through the economy in other ways.
The President constantly reminds us that the US economy is in a growth mode. Employment rates have risen and wages have risen.
In this context, large-scale economic stimulus in the form of deficit spending – even larger than the 2009 emergency stimulus plan – will quickly turn growth into inflation. Inflation will lead to a rise in bond yields as buyers of US Treasury bonds include them in future returns.
These higher interest rates will force the government to invest more money into growing interest payments. This will reduce the share of the economy in federal spending, thereby curbing economic growth.
What complicates the problem is the depreciation of the dollar. The dollar has weakened sharply and fell by about 10% in 2017.
The combination of a weaker dollar and a rising US deficit will attract overseas investors to seek to increase their US Treasury reserves. These buyers want higher returns to compensate for the risks of inflation and increased US debt. This will further depress the bond price...and further increase the US government's interest expenses.
Finally, bond yields and rising inflation will reduce the future value of expected corporate earnings and stock dividends. A lower future income stream means that stock prices are falling. In this way, the US government's deficit will shrink the US stock market.
Give me the old conservatism
Vice President Dick Cheney once said that President Reagan's term of office proves that "defects are not important".
But he was talking about politics - the voters at the time did not punish the Republicans' shortcomings.
The shortcomings of the US government in the Reagan era were the largest since World War II, except for the direct consequences of the 2008 crisis.
However, Republicans who now claim to respect Reagan are working hard to create the biggest deficit in the country's history. In the eight years they won control of the House of Representatives, national debt soared from $13.5 trillion today to $20.4 trillion.
This is the future they created: inflation is rising. The stock market fell. Oh, another thing... your taxes will inevitably come at a price.
President Trump called himself "the king of debt." His courtiers in Congress certainly seem to agree.
Orignal From: Washington is creating a perfect economic storm
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