In discussing the future security of the Kingdom, we should consider the political, social and geographical environment that constitutes one of the world's largest oil producers.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was founded on September 23, 1932, and was ruled by the Saudi family. With the support of the British, the Saudi family unified most of the Arab tribes living in the Arabian Peninsula and defeated the Ibn Rashid dynasty. This is why this country is known as Saudi Arabia or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Today, the country is managed by King Salman bin Abdulzziz and has been the guardian of two Holly Mosques since January 23, 2015. He is also the head of the unified Islamic absolute monarchy. He will be replaced by the Minister of the Interior and the Second Deputy Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Naif. There is also the Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who is also the Minister of Defence and the Second Deputy Prime Minister. He may also have the right to the throne, because the Prince is also the most powerful prince in the region.
The country's GDP in 2015 is estimated at $1,668 trillion and has a population of 30,770,375. In contrast, China's GDP in 2015 was estimated at US$18,976 trillion and its population was 1,376,049,000. Comparing these two powerful countries, we can say that Saudi Arabia looks like a rich country in the world. At first glance, Saudi Arabia's wealth seems to guarantee the prosperity of citizens and the security of the country. However, due to the political skills and knowledge of the Saudi family, the decline in oil prices may have a major impact on the stability of the countries formed by the United Tribe.
However, there are some weaknesses in the political situation in Saudi Arabia. These flaws are rooted in the global political situation not only in the Arabian Peninsula. In addition, we should remember the tribal division and the fall in oil prices, while the national economy is strongly based on oil. These three factors:
- Local and global political situation
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- Oil price
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- Tribal division
It may push the Saudi economy into a big trap of trouble.
Mark Twain said that lack of money is the source of all evil. When we discuss the oil crisis and global politics, we can clearly see this sentence. The oil crisis is a direct way to deepen the tribal split and may lead to the collapse of the tribal alliance under the Saudi dynasty. When it comes to tribes, we should note that hundreds of tribes and merchant families have influence and constitute the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Since the founding of Saudi Arabia, the most powerful tribes have been: Anayzah, Bani Khalid, Harb, Al Murrah, Mutayr, Qahtan, Shammar and Utaiba. It should also be remembered that before the establishment of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the clans fought each other, and the strong and the strong were always to be followed. These tribes believe that the protection of the Saudi family is supported by the British and US governments. The foundation of the establishment and existence of Saudi Arabia is the loyalty of the clan to the royal family, not to the loyalty of the country. The loyalty and belonging of the tribe are deeply rooted in the hearts of the Arabs living there. Therefore, political influence depends on tribal relations and connections. The tribal chiefs can influence political and commercial affairs on the local and national arenas. According to this idea, the funds for oil exports have always been a guarantee of royal stability and a strong position among the tribes. In addition, Saudi Arabia's leading role in oil exports has led the Royal Family to be a leader among the governors of the Gulf States. However, the sharp drop in oil prices has led to the loss of gross domestic product in the Arab countries.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that the income of Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will fall by $300 billion this year. Some sources said that the price of oil should be higher than 100 US dollars per barrel, higher than the Saudi government's brakes and even points, and the forecast price will drop to 20 US dollars per barrel.
The upcoming economic crisis and the four major political opponents:
- Sunshine Islamic activists
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- Liberal critics
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- Shiite minority
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- For example, tribes and regional opponents in Hejaz
Threat to the stability of the country. The most dangerous group is made up of Islamic activists responsible for the terrorist attacks in the country.
After the suspension of King Salam in Saudi Arabia, the competition for the throne is about to begin. A country as an absolute monarchy does not allow any other social or political force to influence the country's national and international policies. During the Arab Spring, the weakened monarchy may leave room for tribal and sectarian divisions that activate and reflect Libya. We should remember that Libya had a 42-year absolute dictatorship under the rule of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who led a coup against the 17th century King Idris monarchy. The Arab Spring on October 23, 2011 led to the collapse of the Qaddafi regime.
Saudi Arabia, like Libya, has a tribal system. For more than 80 years, Saudi Arabia has not had an uprising. Watch one of the historical and Libyan samples, the situation in the area can be like a pot filled with boiling water, with a lid to hold the steam. The unresolved question is how long the royal family can hold.
Orignal From: Political factors to consider when doing international business
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